Christmas is approaching. Perhaps, this will be the first time the whole world wants the same secret wish to get fulfilled by Santa Claus: the discovery of an effective vaccine for the Coronavirus.
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Pandemics often change realities. And it is not just about acute realisation of our mortality. It is also about the inescapable fact that impermanence actually is a message that nature conveys to us time and again. And a key variable which makes us experience this is the all-pervasive impact on the economy.
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In any economy, banks play an important role.
They serve as water to seeds of impressive and profitable ideas which blossom and usher growth and prosperity. In fact, the extent of business in banking sector is indicative of an economy’s health. For a growing economy like India, banking sector assumes greater significance given its pivotal role in reviving the economy. In this context, it is important to understand how healthy are India’s banks to withstand the demand-destructive impact of the widespread of the Coronavirus.
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Not every extraordinary situation turns out to be unfavourable for an economy. There are sectors which benefit amply from extraordinary situations like the pandemic. One such sector is pharmaceuticals. The pandemic which had destroyed demand in most key sectors has clearly brought India’s pharmaceuticals sector at the centre of most analysis and predictions.
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Unforeseen events are a part of our life. But the possibility of things which may appear to be remote or even outlandish may occur anytime. And when such events happen, they change the direction of the way we think or live our lives considerably. A case in the point is the recent widespread of the Coronavirus which has changed the way we work. Such unforeseen and extraordinary events are termed as Black Swan events. Finance professor and trader Nassim Nicholas Taleb made this expression popular through his books which cover this aspect in the most detailed manner. Black swan events have a deep impact on economies. Demand in key sectors of an economy is disrupted. And most experts and analysts find it difficult to forecast the direction of demand. In such delicate situations, central bankers have been unanimously following the strategy of quantitative easing (QE), which began in early 2009. QE has had a deep and lasting impact on asset prices which have a direct beating on the underlying health of the global economic engine. So, what exactly is “quantitative easing” and how does this affect “investors”? Let us understand these nuances:
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The Spanish flu, also known as the 1918 flu pandemic, was an unusually deadly influenza pandemic caused by the H1N1 influenza A virus. Lasting from February 1918 to April 1920, it infected 500 million people – about a third of the world’s population at the time – in four successive waves. The death toll is typically estimated to have been somewhere between 17 million and 50 million, and possibly as high as 100 million, making it one of the deadliest pandemics in human history.
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In CY2019, when the Nifty clocked 12.02%, the NASDAQ 100 index gained 39.98%. Being an Indian Investor definitely helped as the rupee weakness further added a couple of percentage points in returns. US markets especially in the areas of tech and healthcare have done well and also have significant upside potential for growth. The US market has been perceived as the ‘Mother Market’, and has attracted many investors worldwide.
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In the pursuit of earning highest possible returns many investors keep chasing the asset class which has done well in the recent past. In the process, many a time they buy the asset at a price when it has reached the bubble zone. They end up losing money. Earning high returns without risk is almost an impossible task. This is because every asset class goes through different phases. This brings fluctuation in price movement of asset classes. A sensible way to seek healthy risk-adjusted returns is to follow a disciplined approach of asset allocation and systematically rebalance your portfolio from time to time.
(more…)In the pursuit of earning highest possible returns many investors keep chasing the asset class which has done well in the recent past. In the process, many a time they buy…