The GDP vs Stock Market Conundrum
Financial Planning is the process of developing a roadmap for your financial well-being from your current finances. It is recommended that one should start planning and managing at a young…
In fact, the year has made us acutely realize “change is constant” is going to be the norm which most of us have to adhere to stay relevant. These aspects are reflected in the movement of the US dollar.
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Stock Markets across the world are scaling new peaks with many key variables indicating sustained rebound in economic activities. However one needs to view the current market sentiment with measured perspective and a practical approach. While the general optimism around launch of vaccines is running high, the on-the-ground situation will be challenging for implementation of mass immunization programs especially in a developing country like India of our size and population.
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Ever since the stock market hit its recent low in March 2020 correcting some 40% in response to the Covid-19 related lockdown and the ongoing sharp rebound thereafter, market experts have been largely caught on the wrong foot, intermittently predicting boom times ahead and a sharp correction.
(more…)The market is now up about 80% from the March lows and some 40 to 50% above the Nifty targets given by most of the leading brokerages in April 2020.
Christmas is approaching. Perhaps, this will be the first time the whole world wants the same secret wish to get fulfilled by Santa Claus: the discovery of an effective vaccine for the Coronavirus.
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Pandemics often change realities. And it is not just about acute realisation of our mortality. It is also about the inescapable fact that impermanence actually is a message that nature conveys to us time and again. And a key variable which makes us experience this is the all-pervasive impact on the economy.
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In any economy, banks play an important role.
They serve as water to seeds of impressive and profitable ideas which blossom and usher growth and prosperity. In fact, the extent of business in banking sector is indicative of an economy’s health. For a growing economy like India, banking sector assumes greater significance given its pivotal role in reviving the economy. In this context, it is important to understand how healthy are India’s banks to withstand the demand-destructive impact of the widespread of the Coronavirus.
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Not every extraordinary situation turns out to be unfavourable for an economy. There are sectors which benefit amply from extraordinary situations like the pandemic. One such sector is pharmaceuticals. The pandemic which had destroyed demand in most key sectors has clearly brought India’s pharmaceuticals sector at the centre of most analysis and predictions.
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Unforeseen events are a part of our life. But the possibility of things which may appear to be remote or even outlandish may occur anytime. And when such events happen, they change the direction of the way we think or live our lives considerably. A case in the point is the recent widespread of the Coronavirus which has changed the way we work. Such unforeseen and extraordinary events are termed as Black Swan events. Finance professor and trader Nassim Nicholas Taleb made this expression popular through his books which cover this aspect in the most detailed manner. Black swan events have a deep impact on economies. Demand in key sectors of an economy is disrupted. And most experts and analysts find it difficult to forecast the direction of demand. In such delicate situations, central bankers have been unanimously following the strategy of quantitative easing (QE), which began in early 2009. QE has had a deep and lasting impact on asset prices which have a direct beating on the underlying health of the global economic engine. So, what exactly is “quantitative easing” and how does this affect “investors”? Let us understand these nuances:
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