Crystal Ball Gazing: Stock markets in 2022
The best thing about quantitative easing is that it works in practice but not so in theory. Ben Bernanke, the then US Federal Reserve chairman, said that in 2014, the…
How to walk the commodity ‘supercycle’ talk
There emanates from superlatives a destructive force. Elias Canetti, a Nobel laureate for literature, probably said that in the context of the second world war. In financial markets, a lot…
China’s cup of Woes continues to overflow
Terms like ‘Tsunamis’, ‘pandemics’ and ‘contagions’ have become a regular feature in Asia over the past few decades. According to estimates thrown around, the Chinese real estate developer ‘Evergrande’ owes…
Will China’s Real Estate bubble ever POP? The Evergrande saga!
The main protagonist of this story is Evergrande, a systematically important real estate developer of China. Many of us would not have heard of this company in our part of…
What does the recent broad-market rally in markets tell us?
A key characteristic of the rally in Indian stock markets since April 1, 2020 is its broad-based nature. Contrary to the polarization seen in CY2018 and CY2019 when a few high quality names kept the bellwether Nifty 50 up, the recent rally has witnessed broader participation of mid-and-small cap stocks. This broad nature of the rally has clearly provided opportunity to investors to make money. But this does not mean that everyone invested made handsome money.
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Investing at Market Peaks
Ever since the stock market hit its recent low in March 2020 correcting some 40% in response to the Covid-19 related lockdown and the ongoing sharp rebound thereafter, market experts have been largely caught on the wrong foot, intermittently predicting boom times ahead and a sharp correction.
(more…)The market is now up about 80% from the March lows and some 40 to 50% above the Nifty targets given by most of the leading brokerages in April 2020.